El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
'The first two months of monsoon are not looking good.' 'In case both the halves fail, it is going to be misery.'
As the kharif sowing season exceeds two months, no crop has managed to reach the normal area of cultivation (average of the past five years), except for sugarcane, cotton and jute.
According to the global financial services major, inflation may remain sticky, with a possible El Nino effect on the monsoon likely to push up food prices and geopolitical uncertainties seen pumping up global commodity rates.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
Dozens of farmers have already committed suicide in India after damage from unseasonal rains this year.
Heatwave conditions have been prevailing in Odisha since April 15 and the Gangetic West Bengal since April 17, according to the MeT department.
There is a substantial possibility of the emergence of La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which invariably has a positive influence on the monsoon.
The warmest six years have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 being the top three. The differences in average global temperatures among the three warmest years are indistinguishably small. The average global temperature in 2020 was about 14.9C, 1.2 ( 0.1) C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) level.
Lakhs of voters will have to bear the searing heat when they step out to exercise their franchise in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on Friday.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has officially confirmed that 2023 is the hottest year on record by a huge margin, smashing global temperature records.
India is likely to clock a GDP growth of 5.5 per cent during the current financial year provided there is normal monsoon and stable government at the centre, says a D&B report.
A below-normal monsoon can bring down India's GDP growth by 0.50-0.75 per cent this financial year, forcing the Reserve Bank to delay rate cuts to 2015, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) said.
India is set to experience extreme heat during the April to June period, with the central and western peninsular parts expected to face the worst impact, the IMD said on Monday as the country prepares for seven-phase general elections from April 19.
The exercise, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said, will help ease any possible impact of sub-par rainfall on farmers.
The planet experienced its warmest January on record last month despite the development of La Nia, a climate pattern that usually brings cooler global temperatures, the European climate agency said on Thursday. This comes on the heels of the Earth experiencing its hottest year on record in 2024, also the first to see global average temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), January 2025 recorded an average temperature of 13.23 degrees Celsius, 0.09 degrees warmer than the previous hottest January (2024) and 0.79 degrees above the 1991-2020 average. Scientists also found that the Earth's temperature in January was 1.75 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures have stayed above the 1.5-degree mark for 18 of the last 19 months.
The IMD chief also allayed fears of occurrence of an El-Nino.
"Conditions are favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and its further advance into some more parts of south Arabian sea, remaining parts of Maldives - Comorin area, some parts of Tamil Nadu and some more parts of Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours," said a statement by the Indian Meteorological Department.
Monsoon is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average
Globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 0.90 degree Celsius warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. That is second only to global temperatures in 2016.
With temperatures remaining above normal since November, this winter could well be the warmest ever recorded not only in North India, but across the country.
'The last time we had such a late withdrawal of monsoon was in 1960 or so.'
.jpg)
The agency has kept its FY15 growth forecast unchanged at 5.6 per cent.
India will receive normal monsoon this season, country's meteorological department said on Wednesday in its forecast for the Southwest monsoon that covers 75 per cent of the country, and thereby may bring much-needed respite to the economy, which is reeling under the catastrophic effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.
'Because of global warming, the chances of heatwaves like this are much higher.'
'In FY23, PV sales are expected to end the year at a record 3.8 million units, up 26 per cent. In FY24, however, the industry is expecting 5-7 per cent volume growth'
.jpg)
We invite our readers to share their thoughts on water conservation with us on our social networking platform, ZaraBol -- Click #How-to-Conserve-Water to post
Monsoon normally hits Kerala on June 1 but this year, Met department had predicted that it will hit the state on June 5.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent, as Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank's monetary policy actions are yielding the desired results. In April, the Reserve Bank had estimated the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation at 5.2 per cent during the fiscal 2023-24. CPI inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in April 2023, from 6.4 per cent in February, on the back of favourable base effects, with softening observed across all the three major groups.
Asserting that retail inflation excluding food and fuel is still at an elevated level, the Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday said it would endeavour to curb price increases.
India experienced its second-hottest quarter from June to August this year since 1970, with over one-third of the country's population enduring at least seven days of dangerous heat, according to a new report by a United States-based group of climate scientists and communicators.
Current account deficit is expected to narrow to 1 per cent.
While good news from several quarters has been trickling in, El Nino might be a dampener, says T N Ninan.
The government's decision to impose a 20 per cent export duty on parboiled rice and a $1,200 per tonne minimum export price (MEP) on basmati rice has pulled down overseas shipments of the former by almost 83 per cent and around 30 per cent of basmati exports in a month. Data sourced from various trade agencies and shippers showed that between August 25 and September 20, export of basmati rice has shrunk from 342,605 tonnes in 2022 to around 241,083 tonnes in 2023. Similarly, export of parboiled rice, after the imposition of 20 per cent duty during the same period, has dropped from 1.16 million tonnes in 2022 to just around 204,190 tonnes in 2023.
'It affects our economy, it is very important in many ways.' 'So we have to be the foremost experts in the world on the monsoon.' 'But the best minds in India have not devoted their time to the study of monsoon and they have followed the fashions of the West.'
Automobile retail sales in India witnessed a double-digit year-on-year growth in February driven by robust sales across segments including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, automobile dealers' body FADA said on Monday. Total registrations across segments rose 16 per cent year-on-year to 17,75,424 units last month, as compared to 15,31,196 vehicles in February 2022. Passenger vehicle retail sales rose 11 per cent to 287,182 units last month, against 258,736 units in the year-ago period.
'Very few of small investors stay invested for those three or four or five years.' 'If there's like a six month, one-year period when market is not doing well, you exit.' 'After the market has run up, you get in again.' 'This way you will never make returns.'
Business houses expect rate cut in next RBI policy.
